***THIS FILE REPLICATES THE RESULTS OF GABEL, CARRUBBA, AINSLEY, AND BEAUDETTE IN THE ***JOURNAL OF POLITICS. RUN THIS FILE AFTER OPENING THE DATA FILE "jopreplicationdata.dta" ***May 14, 2012 set logtype text log using JOPreplication.out, replace xtset natlsourceofcase year *****Descriptive Statistics xtsum EUimportsovergdp xtsum protradePR xtsum protradePRsubset xtsum protradeIR xtsum protradeIRsubset ****Demonstrate correlation between 169 and 177 rulings pcorr protradePR protradeIR fr belux ge it pcorr protradePR protradePRsubset fr belux ge it pcorr protradeIR protradeIRsubset fr belux ge it ****Stationarity tests (Akaike Information Criteria) for years in ADL models xtunitroot llc EUimportsovergdp if year>1970, lags(aic) kernel(bartlett nw) xtunitroot llc EUimportsovergdp if year>1970, lags(aic) kernel(bartlett nw) demean *****Demonstrate necessity of time and country fixed effects reg EUimportsovergdp fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972 y1971 test fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972 y1971 ****ADL Models presented in Table 1 xtpcse EUimportsovergdp EUimportsovergdplag1 protradeIRlag1 protradeIRlag2 protradeIRlag3 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972, pairwise xtpcse EUimportsovergdp EUimportsovergdplag1 protradeIRsubsetlag1 protradeIRsubsetlag2 protradeIRsubsetlag3 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972, pairwise xtpcse EUimportsovergdp EUimportsovergdplag1 protradePRlag1 protradePRlag2 protradePRlag3 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972, pairwise xtpcse EUimportsovergdp EUimportsovergdplag1 protradePRsubsetlag1 protradePRsubsetlag2 protradePRsubsetlag3 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972, pairwise ***Prais-Winsten models in Table 1 xtpcse EUimportsovergdp protradePRlag2 protradeIRlag2 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972 y1971, pairwise correlation(ar1) xtpcse EUimportsovergdp protradePRsubsetlag2 protradeIRsubsetlag2 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972 y1971, pairwise correlation(ar1) ****Lagrange Multiplier Test for AR1 process ****First generate the residuals from a model with lagged dependent variable for Infringement Rulings reg EUimportsovergdp EUimportsovergdplag1 protradeIRlag1 protradeIRlag2 protradeIRlag3 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972 predict res, r gen reslag1=res[_n-1] replace reslag1=0 if reslag1==. | year<1971 replace res=0 if res==. ***then regress those residuals on their lag(s) reg res reslag1 EUimportsovergdplag1 protradeIRlag1 protradeIRlag2 protradeIRlag3 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972 ***do it again for Preliminary Rulings drop res reslag1 reg EUimportsovergdp EUimportsovergdplag1 protradePRlag1 protradePRlag2 protradePRlag3 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972 predict res, r gen reslag1=res[_n-1] replace reslag1=0 if reslag1==. | year<1971 replace res=0 if res==. reg res reslag1 EUimportsovergdplag1 protradePRlag1 protradePRlag2 protradePRlag3 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972 ****Specification test for Prais-Winsten model for preliminary rulings. ***Is protradelag3 coef. equal to protradelag2*EUimportsovergdplag1? xtpcse EUimportsovergdp EUimportsovergdplag1 protradePRlag1 protradePRlag2 protradePRlag3 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972, pairwise test protradePRlag2*.81 + protradePRlag3=0 xtpcse EUimportsovergdp EUimportsovergdplag1 protradePRsubsetlag1 protradePRsubsetlag2 protradePRsubsetlag3 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972, pairwise test protradePRsubsetlag2*.82 + protradePRsubsetlag3=0 ****Kievet bias correction to assess any bias in the coefficient estimates on the lagged dependent variable and the lagged rulings xtlsdvc EUimportsovergdp protradePRlag1 protradePRlag2 protradePRlag3 y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972, initial(ah) vcov(200) xtlsdvc EUimportsovergdp protradePRsubsetlag1 protradePRsubsetlag2 protradePRsubsetlag3 y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972, initial(ah) vcov(200) ***for Germany counterfactual xtpcse EUimportsovergdp protradePRlag2 protradeIRlag2 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972 y1971, pairwise correlation(ar1) predict p list year p if ge==1 & year>1969 log close