----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- name: log: /Users/mjgabe1/Desktop/JOP Replication/JOPreplication.out log type: text opened on: 15 May 2012, 13:28:38 . . xtset natlsourceofcase year panel variable: natlsourceofcase (strongly balanced) time variable: year, 1970 to 1993 delta: 1 unit . . . *****Descriptive Statistics . . xtsum EUimportsovergdp Variable | Mean Std. Dev. Min Max | Observations -----------------+--------------------------------------------+---------------- EUimpo~p overall | 17.76619 11.34593 5.621081 43.30613 | N = 120 between | 12.15908 8.208613 35.39538 | n = 5 within | 3.075971 7.274849 25.67694 | T = 24 . . xtsum protradePR Variable | Mean Std. Dev. Min Max | Observations -----------------+--------------------------------------------+---------------- protr~PR overall | 16.11667 11.03637 1 57 | N = 120 between | 9.258648 10.75 32.45833 | n = 5 within | 7.255829 2.658333 40.65833 | T = 24 . xtsum protradePRsubset Variable | Mean Std. Dev. Min Max | Observations -----------------+--------------------------------------------+---------------- protra.. overall | 11.71667 9.618944 0 50 | N = 120 between | 8.031157 5.375 25.75 | n = 5 within | 6.363246 -.0333333 35.96667 | T = 24 . . xtsum protradeIR Variable | Mean Std. Dev. Min Max | Observations -----------------+--------------------------------------------+---------------- protr~IR overall | 2.65 3.468102 0 17 | N = 120 between | 2.017415 .9166667 5.958333 | n = 5 within | 2.957093 -3.308333 13.69167 | T = 24 . xtsum protradeIRsubset Variable | Mean Std. Dev. Min Max | Observations -----------------+--------------------------------------------+---------------- protra.. overall | 2.333333 3.231498 0 16 | N = 120 between | 1.870133 .8333333 5.5 | n = 5 within | 2.760643 -3.166667 12.83333 | T = 24 . . ****Demonstrate correlation between 169 and 177 rulings . . pcorr protradePR protradeIR fr belux ge it (obs=120) Partial and semipartial correlations of protradePR with Partial Semipartial Partial Semipartial Significance Variable | Corr. Corr. Corr.^2 Corr.^2 Value ------------+----------------------------------------------------------------- protradeIR | 0.2550 0.1677 0.0650 0.0281 0.0057 fr | -0.1834 -0.1186 0.0336 0.0141 0.0487 belux | -0.1615 -0.1040 0.0261 0.0108 0.0833 ge | 0.6217 0.5046 0.3866 0.2546 0.0000 it | -0.2635 -0.1737 0.0694 0.0302 0.0043 . pcorr protradePR protradePRsubset fr belux ge it (obs=120) Partial and semipartial correlations of protradePR with Partial Semipartial Partial Semipartial Significance Variable | Corr. Corr. Corr.^2 Corr.^2 Value ------------+----------------------------------------------------------------- protradeP~t | 0.8989 0.5910 0.8080 0.3492 0.0000 fr | -0.2194 -0.0648 0.0482 0.0042 0.0179 belux | 0.1977 0.0581 0.0391 0.0034 0.0334 ge | 0.1172 0.0340 0.0137 0.0012 0.2103 it | -0.3331 -0.1018 0.1110 0.0104 0.0003 . pcorr protradeIR protradeIRsubset fr belux ge it (obs=120) Partial and semipartial correlations of protradeIR with Partial Semipartial Partial Semipartial Significance Variable | Corr. Corr. Corr.^2 Corr.^2 Value ------------+----------------------------------------------------------------- protradeI~t | 0.9854 0.8402 0.9710 0.7059 0.0000 fr | 0.1114 0.0163 0.0124 0.0003 0.2336 belux | 0.2679 0.0404 0.0718 0.0016 0.0036 ge | 0.0044 0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 0.9627 it | 0.0643 0.0094 0.0041 0.0001 0.4930 . . ****Stationarity tests (Akaike Information Criteria) for years in ADL models . . xtunitroot llc EUimportsovergdp if year>1970, lags(aic) kernel(bartlett nw) Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for EUimportsovergdp ------------------------------------------------- Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 5 Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods = 23 AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: N/T -> 0 Panel means: Included Time trend: Not included ADF regressions: 0.00 lags average (chosen by AIC) LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 2.00 lags average (chosen by Newey-West) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Statistic p-value ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Unadjusted t -4.6713 Adjusted t* -2.2857 0.0111 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . xtunitroot llc EUimportsovergdp if year>1970, lags(aic) kernel(bartlett nw) demean Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for EUimportsovergdp ------------------------------------------------- Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 5 Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods = 23 AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: N/T -> 0 Panel means: Included Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means removed ADF regressions: 0.20 lags average (chosen by AIC) LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 5.60 lags average (chosen by Newey-West) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Statistic p-value ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Unadjusted t -4.3137 Adjusted t* -1.6536 0.0491 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . . *****Demonstrate necessity of time and country fixed effects . . reg EUimportsovergdp fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y19 > 82 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972 y1971 Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 120 -------------+------------------------------ F( 27, 92) = 133.49 Model | 14937.5748 27 553.243512 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual | 381.298193 92 4.14454558 R-squared = 0.9751 -------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.9678 Total | 15318.873 119 128.730025 Root MSE = 2.0358 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ EUimportso~p | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- fr | -15.52496 .5876894 -26.42 0.000 -16.69216 -14.35776 belux | 9.758199 .5876894 16.60 0.000 8.590997 10.9254 ge | -16.15962 .5876894 -27.50 0.000 -17.32682 -14.99241 it | -17.42856 .5876894 -29.66 0.000 -18.59577 -16.26136 y1993 | 4.117075 1.287563 3.20 0.002 1.559864 6.674286 y1992 | 5.956176 1.287563 4.63 0.000 3.398965 8.513387 y1991 | 7.279549 1.287563 5.65 0.000 4.722338 9.83676 y1990 | 7.832035 1.287563 6.08 0.000 5.274824 10.38925 y1989 | 7.962206 1.287563 6.18 0.000 5.404995 10.51942 y1988 | 7.162692 1.287563 5.56 0.000 4.605481 9.719904 y1987 | 6.514976 1.287563 5.06 0.000 3.957765 9.072187 y1986 | 6.684599 1.287563 5.19 0.000 4.127388 9.24181 y1985 | 8.186301 1.287563 6.36 0.000 5.62909 10.74351 y1984 | 7.175049 1.287563 5.57 0.000 4.617838 9.73226 y1983 | 6.126322 1.287563 4.76 0.000 3.569111 8.683533 y1982 | 5.77525 1.287563 4.49 0.000 3.218038 8.332461 y1981 | 5.072307 1.287563 3.94 0.000 2.515096 7.629519 y1980 | 4.900674 1.287563 3.81 0.000 2.343463 7.457886 y1979 | 4.822146 1.287563 3.75 0.000 2.264935 7.379357 y1978 | 3.252523 1.287563 2.53 0.013 .695312 5.809734 y1977 | 3.242925 1.287563 2.52 0.014 .6857137 5.800136 y1976 | 3.04284 1.287563 2.36 0.020 .4856292 5.600051 y1975 | 2.047028 1.287563 1.59 0.115 -.5101827 4.604239 y1974 | 4.12641 1.287563 3.20 0.002 1.569199 6.683621 y1973 | 2.709452 1.287563 2.10 0.038 .1522409 5.266663 y1972 | -.1109999 1.287563 -0.09 0.931 -2.668211 2.446211 y1971 | .0668932 1.287563 0.05 0.959 -2.490318 2.624104 _cons | 20.88949 .9833924 21.24 0.000 18.93639 22.84259 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . test fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 > y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972 y1971 ( 1) fr = 0 ( 2) belux = 0 ( 3) ge = 0 ( 4) it = 0 ( 5) y1993 = 0 ( 6) y1992 = 0 ( 7) y1991 = 0 ( 8) y1990 = 0 ( 9) y1989 = 0 (10) y1988 = 0 (11) y1987 = 0 (12) y1986 = 0 (13) y1985 = 0 (14) y1984 = 0 (15) y1983 = 0 (16) y1982 = 0 (17) y1981 = 0 (18) y1980 = 0 (19) y1979 = 0 (20) y1978 = 0 (21) y1977 = 0 (22) y1976 = 0 (23) y1975 = 0 (24) y1974 = 0 (25) y1973 = 0 (26) y1972 = 0 (27) y1971 = 0 F( 27, 92) = 133.49 Prob > F = 0.0000 . . . ****ADL Models presented in Table 1 . . xtpcse EUimportsovergdp EUimportsovergdplag1 protradeIRlag1 protradeIRlag2 protradeIRlag3 fr belux ge it > y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1 > 976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972, pairwise Linear regression, correlated panels corrected standard errors (PCSEs) Group variable: natlsourceofcase Number of obs = 115 Time variable: year Number of groups = 5 Panels: correlated (balanced) Obs per group: min = 23 Autocorrelation: no autocorrelation avg = 23 max = 23 Estimated covariances = 15 R-squared = 0.9941 Estimated autocorrelations = 0 Wald chi2(8) = 256.97 Estimated coefficients = 31 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Panel-corrected EUimportso~p | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- EUimportso~1 | .8063433 .0856394 9.42 0.000 .6384932 .9741935 protr~IRlag1 | -.0316127 .0451146 -0.70 0.483 -.1200357 .0568103 protr~IRlag2 | -.0126911 .0481027 -0.26 0.792 -.1069707 .0815885 protr~IRlag3 | .0066423 .0480726 0.14 0.890 -.0875782 .1008628 fr | -2.90841 1.361404 -2.14 0.033 -5.576713 -.2401068 belux | 2.244559 .8901685 2.52 0.012 .4998607 3.989257 ge | -3.135428 1.415384 -2.22 0.027 -5.90953 -.3613254 it | -3.20403 1.484318 -2.16 0.031 -6.113239 -.2948215 y1993 | -.6169404 .6433907 -0.96 0.338 -1.877963 .6440822 y1992 | .2601123 .7384974 0.35 0.725 -1.187316 1.707541 y1991 | .9980917 .7698158 1.30 0.195 -.5107195 2.506903 y1990 | 1.446797 .8040536 1.80 0.072 -.1291188 3.022714 y1989 | 2.321079 .7271087 3.19 0.001 .8959716 3.746185 y1988 | 2.036341 .6538516 3.11 0.002 .754815 3.317866 y1987 | 1.171022 .6308932 1.86 0.063 -.0655058 2.40755 y1986 | .1070415 .7473784 0.14 0.886 -1.357793 1.571876 y1985 | 2.403663 .6694258 3.59 0.000 1.091612 3.715713 y1984 | 2.25516 .5632462 4.00 0.000 1.151218 3.359102 y1983 | 1.482784 .5403675 2.74 0.006 .4236829 2.541885 y1982 | 1.659946 .452188 3.67 0.000 .7736735 2.546218 y1981 | 1.104167 .4370502 2.53 0.012 .2475647 1.96077 y1980 | .9429377 .4123975 2.29 0.022 .1346534 1.751222 y1979 | 2.12245 .2784826 7.62 0.000 1.576634 2.668266 y1978 | .5429271 .2742015 1.98 0.048 .0055021 1.080352 y1977 | .6921274 .2578326 2.68 0.007 .1867847 1.19747 y1976 | 1.28603 .1802716 7.13 0.000 .9327039 1.639355 y1975 | -1.378745 .3492225 -3.95 0.000 -2.063208 -.694281 y1974 | 1.850761 .2300972 8.04 0.000 1.399778 2.301743 y1973 | 2.690096 .0714842 37.63 0.000 2.54999 2.830203 y1972 | -.2649742 .0609935 -4.34 0.000 -.3845192 -.1454293 _cons | 4.03286 1.78992 2.25 0.024 .5246807 7.54104 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . xtpcse EUimportsovergdp EUimportsovergdplag1 protradeIRsubsetlag1 protradeIRsubsetlag2 protradeIRsubsetla > g3 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1 > 979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972, pairwise Linear regression, correlated panels corrected standard errors (PCSEs) Group variable: natlsourceofcase Number of obs = 115 Time variable: year Number of groups = 5 Panels: correlated (balanced) Obs per group: min = 23 Autocorrelation: no autocorrelation avg = 23 max = 23 Estimated covariances = 15 R-squared = 0.9941 Estimated autocorrelations = 0 Wald chi2(8) = 297.38 Estimated coefficients = 31 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Panel-corrected EUimportso~p | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- EUimportso~1 | .7990523 .0870229 9.18 0.000 .6284905 .969614 protradeIR.. | -.0406777 .0476966 -0.85 0.394 -.1341612 .0528059 protradeIR.. | -.009394 .0528825 -0.18 0.859 -.1130417 .0942537 protradeIR.. | -.0165209 .0517141 -0.32 0.749 -.1178787 .0848369 fr | -3.016183 1.38302 -2.18 0.029 -5.726853 -.3055137 belux | 2.333337 .9010067 2.59 0.010 .5673963 4.099278 ge | -3.238911 1.435342 -2.26 0.024 -6.05213 -.4256924 it | -3.212404 1.487549 -2.16 0.031 -6.127946 -.2968626 y1993 | -.5070885 .6463454 -0.78 0.433 -1.773902 .7597253 y1992 | .3921231 .7497698 0.52 0.601 -1.077399 1.861645 y1991 | 1.164558 .7825957 1.49 0.137 -.3693018 2.698417 y1990 | 1.611066 .8123073 1.98 0.047 .0189735 3.203159 y1989 | 2.435569 .7301573 3.34 0.001 1.004487 3.866651 y1988 | 2.148867 .6604635 3.25 0.001 .8543819 3.443351 y1987 | 1.267533 .6442031 1.97 0.049 .0049183 2.530148 y1986 | .2195207 .7670139 0.29 0.775 -1.283799 1.72284 y1985 | 2.545435 .6908496 3.68 0.000 1.191395 3.899476 y1984 | 2.33663 .576728 4.05 0.000 1.206264 3.466996 y1983 | 1.590568 .5573269 2.85 0.004 .4982275 2.682909 y1982 | 1.702788 .4605174 3.70 0.000 .8001907 2.605386 y1981 | 1.159333 .4448225 2.61 0.009 .2874969 2.031169 y1980 | .9735726 .416403 2.34 0.019 .1574378 1.789707 y1979 | 2.135483 .2796038 7.64 0.000 1.58747 2.683497 y1978 | .5491231 .2762834 1.99 0.047 .0076177 1.090629 y1977 | .6960986 .2569106 2.71 0.007 .1925631 1.199634 y1976 | 1.296449 .1796725 7.22 0.000 .9442978 1.648601 y1975 | -1.368579 .3519068 -3.89 0.000 -2.058304 -.6788546 y1974 | 1.854114 .2289142 8.10 0.000 1.405451 2.302778 y1973 | 2.697351 .0818782 32.94 0.000 2.536873 2.857829 y1972 | -.260684 .0676253 -3.85 0.000 -.3932272 -.1281409 _cons | 4.168323 1.818405 2.29 0.022 .6043146 7.732332 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . xtpcse EUimportsovergdp EUimportsovergdplag1 protradePRlag1 protradePRlag2 protradePRlag3 fr belux ge it > y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1 > 976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972, pairwise Linear regression, correlated panels corrected standard errors (PCSEs) Group variable: natlsourceofcase Number of obs = 115 Time variable: year Number of groups = 5 Panels: correlated (balanced) Obs per group: min = 23 Autocorrelation: no autocorrelation avg = 23 max = 23 Estimated covariances = 15 R-squared = 0.9943 Estimated autocorrelations = 0 Wald chi2(8) = 1467.41 Estimated coefficients = 31 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Panel-corrected EUimportso~p | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- EUimportso~1 | .8138034 .0846954 9.61 0.000 .6478036 .9798033 protr~PRlag1 | .0023179 .0137963 0.17 0.867 -.0247224 .0293581 protr~PRlag2 | .0236104 .0137154 1.72 0.085 -.0032714 .0504921 protr~PRlag3 | -.0240852 .0148241 -1.62 0.104 -.05314 .0049695 fr | -2.818413 1.339426 -2.10 0.035 -5.443639 -.1931874 belux | 2.088744 .8658411 2.41 0.016 .3917266 3.785761 ge | -3.084359 1.514085 -2.04 0.042 -6.05191 -.1168077 it | -3.260023 1.494826 -2.18 0.029 -6.189828 -.330217 y1993 | -.8081713 .5394364 -1.50 0.134 -1.865447 .2491046 y1992 | -.2067434 .6287179 -0.33 0.742 -1.439008 1.025521 y1991 | .8437059 .6584119 1.28 0.200 -.4467577 2.13417 y1990 | 1.095211 .6734806 1.63 0.104 -.2247867 2.415209 y1989 | 1.982026 .5959742 3.33 0.001 .8139384 3.150114 y1988 | 1.833018 .5483567 3.34 0.001 .7582591 2.907778 y1987 | .9160441 .5706531 1.61 0.108 -.2024154 2.034504 y1986 | -.1990739 .6798875 -0.29 0.770 -1.531629 1.133481 y1985 | 2.493957 .6085435 4.10 0.000 1.301234 3.68668 y1984 | 1.873865 .556983 3.36 0.001 .782198 2.965531 y1983 | 1.278297 .49443 2.59 0.010 .3092322 2.247362 y1982 | 1.600915 .4406074 3.63 0.000 .73734 2.464489 y1981 | .8328667 .431442 1.93 0.054 -.0127441 1.678478 y1980 | .9804653 .4127711 2.38 0.018 .1714489 1.789482 y1979 | 2.002164 .3305152 6.06 0.000 1.354366 2.649962 y1978 | .3687963 .3019276 1.22 0.222 -.2229708 .9605635 y1977 | .7039105 .2639469 2.67 0.008 .186584 1.221237 y1976 | 1.293231 .2266415 5.71 0.000 .8490215 1.73744 y1975 | -1.529938 .3554969 -4.30 0.000 -2.226699 -.8331765 y1974 | 1.731882 .2330215 7.43 0.000 1.275168 2.188596 y1973 | 2.763503 .0867662 31.85 0.000 2.593444 2.933561 y1972 | -.4245595 .1054238 -4.03 0.000 -.6311864 -.2179326 _cons | 3.928599 1.763552 2.23 0.026 .4721 7.385098 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . xtpcse EUimportsovergdp EUimportsovergdplag1 protradePRsubsetlag1 protradePRsubsetlag2 protradePRsubsetla > g3 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1 > 979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972, pairwise Linear regression, correlated panels corrected standard errors (PCSEs) Group variable: natlsourceofcase Number of obs = 115 Time variable: year Number of groups = 5 Panels: correlated (balanced) Obs per group: min = 23 Autocorrelation: no autocorrelation avg = 23 max = 23 Estimated covariances = 15 R-squared = 0.9944 Estimated autocorrelations = 0 Wald chi2(8) = 3243.22 Estimated coefficients = 31 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Panel-corrected EUimportso~p | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- EUimportso~1 | .817257 .0839524 9.73 0.000 .6527134 .9818006 protradePR.. | .0014126 .0146884 0.10 0.923 -.0273762 .0302014 protradePR.. | .0179786 .0148714 1.21 0.227 -.0111687 .047126 protradePR.. | -.0348306 .0153037 -2.28 0.023 -.0648253 -.0048359 fr | -2.800208 1.333577 -2.10 0.036 -5.413971 -.1864451 belux | 1.976304 .8795257 2.25 0.025 .2524652 3.700143 ge | -2.767988 1.512828 -1.83 0.067 -5.733077 .1971008 it | -3.214577 1.4956 -2.15 0.032 -6.1459 -.2832541 y1993 | -.6583219 .5075604 -1.30 0.195 -1.653122 .3364782 y1992 | -.0289343 .5994129 -0.05 0.962 -1.203762 1.145893 y1991 | 1.004091 .6343243 1.58 0.113 -.2391614 2.247344 y1990 | 1.233591 .6569273 1.88 0.060 -.0539629 2.521145 y1989 | 2.043502 .5811153 3.52 0.000 .9045367 3.182467 y1988 | 1.969106 .5319878 3.70 0.000 .9264286 3.011782 y1987 | 1.046593 .5586369 1.87 0.061 -.0483146 2.141502 y1986 | -.0863184 .6671804 -0.13 0.897 -1.393968 1.221331 y1985 | 2.573082 .5866026 4.39 0.000 1.423362 3.722802 y1984 | 2.09095 .5298315 3.95 0.000 1.052499 3.129401 y1983 | 1.414924 .4721861 3.00 0.003 .489456 2.340391 y1982 | 1.757421 .4273289 4.11 0.000 .919872 2.59497 y1981 | .9003678 .4234903 2.13 0.033 .0703421 1.730393 y1980 | 1.056936 .3909678 2.70 0.007 .2906526 1.823218 y1979 | 2.139559 .3024232 7.07 0.000 1.54682 2.732298 y1978 | .4612908 .2813469 1.64 0.101 -.090139 1.012721 y1977 | .7869133 .2511747 3.13 0.002 .29462 1.279207 y1976 | 1.439567 .2231077 6.45 0.000 1.002284 1.87685 y1975 | -1.49779 .356775 -4.20 0.000 -2.197056 -.7985236 y1974 | 1.809037 .2241372 8.07 0.000 1.369736 2.248338 y1973 | 2.809965 .1022098 27.49 0.000 2.609638 3.010293 y1972 | -.4452993 .1203689 -3.70 0.000 -.681218 -.2093806 _cons | 3.909514 1.747644 2.24 0.025 .4841957 7.334833 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . ***Prais-Winsten models in Table 1 . . xtpcse EUimportsovergdp protradePRlag2 protradeIRlag2 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 > y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972 y1971, p > airwise correlation(ar1) Prais-Winsten regression, correlated panels corrected standard errors (PCSEs) Group variable: natlsourceofcase Number of obs = 120 Time variable: year Number of groups = 5 Panels: correlated (balanced) Obs per group: min = 24 Autocorrelation: common AR(1) avg = 24 max = 24 Estimated covariances = 15 R-squared = 0.9326 Estimated autocorrelations = 1 Wald chi2(6) = 1462.47 Estimated coefficients = 30 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Panel-corrected EUimportso~p | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- protr~PRlag2 | .0271273 .0131888 2.06 0.040 .0012778 .0529769 protr~IRlag2 | -.0205439 .048481 -0.42 0.672 -.1155649 .0744772 fr | -15.09762 .8649795 -17.45 0.000 -16.79294 -13.40229 belux | 9.357685 .8686176 10.77 0.000 7.655226 11.06014 ge | -16.31988 .9135861 -17.86 0.000 -18.11047 -14.52928 it | -16.9321 .9684396 -17.48 0.000 -18.83021 -15.03399 y1993 | 3.822895 .4317969 8.85 0.000 2.976589 4.669202 y1992 | 5.539209 .3132179 17.68 0.000 4.925313 6.153105 y1991 | 6.970932 .241162 28.91 0.000 6.498264 7.443601 y1990 | 7.491342 .3533535 21.20 0.000 6.798781 8.183902 y1989 | 7.785753 .3371746 23.09 0.000 7.124902 8.446603 y1988 | 6.958635 .2315541 30.05 0.000 6.504797 7.412473 y1987 | 6.195509 .245225 25.26 0.000 5.714877 6.676141 y1986 | 6.405743 .2143166 29.89 0.000 5.98569 6.825796 y1985 | 8.011846 .1692322 47.34 0.000 7.680157 8.343535 y1984 | 6.713203 .3089489 21.73 0.000 6.107674 7.318732 y1983 | 5.856683 .1612159 36.33 0.000 5.540706 6.172661 y1982 | 5.537005 .1834084 30.19 0.000 5.177531 5.896479 y1981 | 4.715702 .182201 25.88 0.000 4.358595 5.07281 y1980 | 4.695982 .1099248 42.72 0.000 4.480534 4.911431 y1979 | 4.45864 .1767298 25.23 0.000 4.112256 4.805024 y1978 | 2.959548 .1424389 20.78 0.000 2.680373 3.238723 y1977 | 3.081478 .0769425 40.05 0.000 2.930673 3.232282 y1976 | 2.816288 .1084167 25.98 0.000 2.603795 3.02878 y1975 | 1.801566 .1218887 14.78 0.000 1.562668 2.040463 y1974 | 3.99209 .0638805 62.49 0.000 3.866887 4.117294 y1973 | 2.656514 .0254898 104.22 0.000 2.606555 2.706473 y1972 | -.2288847 .0701196 -3.26 0.001 -.3663166 -.0914528 y1971 | .1321575 .0451262 2.93 0.003 .0437118 .2206032 _cons | 20.70032 .495651 41.76 0.000 19.72886 21.67178 -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- rho | .7166385 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . xtpcse EUimportsovergdp protradePRsubsetlag2 protradeIRsubsetlag2 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 > y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1 > 972 y1971, pairwise correlation(ar1) Prais-Winsten regression, correlated panels corrected standard errors (PCSEs) Group variable: natlsourceofcase Number of obs = 120 Time variable: year Number of groups = 5 Panels: correlated (balanced) Obs per group: min = 24 Autocorrelation: common AR(1) avg = 24 max = 24 Estimated covariances = 15 R-squared = 0.9296 Estimated autocorrelations = 1 Wald chi2(6) = 1841.10 Estimated coefficients = 30 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Panel-corrected EUimportso~p | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- protradePR.. | .0275378 .014279 1.93 0.054 -.0004485 .055524 protradeIR.. | -.0174789 .0542027 -0.32 0.747 -.1237143 .0887564 fr | -15.13675 .8958268 -16.90 0.000 -16.89254 -13.38097 belux | 9.369506 .9006687 10.40 0.000 7.604228 11.13478 ge | -16.26282 .9330976 -17.43 0.000 -18.09165 -14.43398 it | -17.01625 1.007869 -16.88 0.000 -18.99164 -15.04087 y1993 | 3.927509 .3518477 11.16 0.000 3.2379 4.617118 y1992 | 5.690659 .2062269 27.59 0.000 5.286462 6.094856 y1991 | 7.088169 .1545718 45.86 0.000 6.785214 7.391125 y1990 | 7.596496 .2600287 29.21 0.000 7.086849 8.106142 y1989 | 7.869336 .2774083 28.37 0.000 7.325626 8.413046 y1988 | 7.071933 .1557142 45.42 0.000 6.766739 7.377127 y1987 | 6.290551 .1638681 38.39 0.000 5.969376 6.611727 y1986 | 6.50773 .1593701 40.83 0.000 6.195371 6.82009 y1985 | 8.083042 .1373643 58.84 0.000 7.813813 8.352272 y1984 | 6.861976 .2133274 32.17 0.000 6.443862 7.28009 y1983 | 5.926995 .1119658 52.94 0.000 5.707546 6.146444 y1982 | 5.593401 .1362816 41.04 0.000 5.326294 5.860508 y1981 | 4.774372 .1526868 31.27 0.000 4.475111 5.073633 y1980 | 4.7865 .0595632 80.36 0.000 4.669758 4.903242 y1979 | 4.581826 .1266766 36.17 0.000 4.333544 4.830107 y1978 | 3.056263 .103922 29.41 0.000 2.852579 3.259946 y1977 | 3.156816 .0474233 66.57 0.000 3.063868 3.249764 y1976 | 2.87613 .0920606 31.24 0.000 2.695694 3.056565 y1975 | 1.821219 .1170876 15.55 0.000 1.591731 2.050706 y1974 | 4.051316 .0418656 96.77 0.000 3.969261 4.133371 y1973 | 2.652892 .038554 68.81 0.000 2.577328 2.728457 y1972 | -.2216787 .0608324 -3.64 0.000 -.3409079 -.1024495 y1971 | .1524746 .0654695 2.33 0.020 .0241567 .2807924 _cons | 20.72461 .5199481 39.86 0.000 19.70553 21.74369 -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- rho | .7260058 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . . ****Lagrange Multiplier Test for AR1 process . . ****First generate the residuals from a model with lagged dependent variable for Infringement Rulings . . reg EUimportsovergdp EUimportsovergdplag1 protradeIRlag1 protradeIRlag2 protradeIRlag3 fr belux ge it y1 > 993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 > y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972 Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 115 -------------+------------------------------ F( 30, 84) = 473.00 Model | 14770.6772 30 492.355907 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual | 87.4382363 84 1.04093138 R-squared = 0.9941 -------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.9920 Total | 14858.1155 114 130.334346 Root MSE = 1.0203 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ EUimportso~p | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- EUimportso~1 | .8063433 .0534416 15.09 0.000 .7000689 .9126178 protr~IRlag1 | -.0316127 .0497366 -0.64 0.527 -.1305193 .067294 protr~IRlag2 | -.0126911 .0514869 -0.25 0.806 -.1150785 .0896963 protr~IRlag3 | .0066423 .0517211 0.13 0.898 -.0962108 .1094955 fr | -2.90841 .8813863 -3.30 0.001 -4.661143 -1.155677 belux | 2.244559 .636181 3.53 0.001 .9794432 3.509675 ge | -3.135428 .9110081 -3.44 0.001 -4.947067 -1.323788 it | -3.20403 .9915232 -3.23 0.002 -5.175783 -1.232278 y1993 | -.6169404 .8224326 -0.75 0.455 -2.252438 1.018557 y1992 | .2601123 .8688837 0.30 0.765 -1.467758 1.987983 y1991 | .9980917 .858025 1.16 0.248 -.7081851 2.704368 y1990 | 1.446797 .8795698 1.64 0.104 -.3023236 3.195918 y1989 | 2.321079 .8549588 2.71 0.008 .6208993 4.021258 y1988 | 2.036341 .8208706 2.48 0.015 .4039494 3.668732 y1987 | 1.171022 .7843669 1.49 0.139 -.3887776 2.730822 y1986 | .1070415 .8177175 0.13 0.896 -1.519079 1.733163 y1985 | 2.403663 .7923166 3.03 0.003 .8280544 3.979271 y1984 | 2.25516 .7499475 3.01 0.003 .7638069 3.746513 y1983 | 1.482784 .7491727 1.98 0.051 -.0070283 2.972596 y1982 | 1.659946 .709127 2.34 0.022 .2497688 3.070122 y1981 | 1.104167 .7077883 1.56 0.123 -.3033473 2.511682 y1980 | .9429377 .6946869 1.36 0.178 -.4385234 2.324399 y1979 | 2.12245 .6689352 3.17 0.002 .7921988 3.452701 y1978 | .5429271 .6679146 0.81 0.419 -.7852944 1.871149 y1977 | .6921274 .665759 1.04 0.302 -.6318074 2.016062 y1976 | 1.28603 .6562145 1.96 0.053 -.0189249 2.590984 y1975 | -1.378745 .6810778 -2.02 0.046 -2.733142 -.0243467 y1974 | 1.850761 .6618583 2.80 0.006 .5345829 3.166938 y1973 | 2.690096 .6492307 4.14 0.000 1.39903 3.981163 y1972 | -.2649742 .6478795 -0.41 0.684 -1.553354 1.023405 _cons | 4.03286 1.215806 3.32 0.001 1.615096 6.450624 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . predict res, r (5 missing values generated) . gen reslag1=res[_n-1] (6 missing values generated) . replace reslag1=0 if reslag1==. | year<1971 (10 real changes made) . replace res=0 if res==. (5 real changes made) . . . ***then regress those residuals on their lag(s) . . reg res reslag1 EUimportsovergdplag1 protradeIRlag1 protradeIRlag2 protradeIRlag3 fr belux ge it y1993 y > 1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y197 > 5 y1974 y1973 y1972 Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 115 -------------+------------------------------ F( 31, 83) = 0.00 Model | .146172688 31 .004715248 Prob > F = 1.0000 Residual | 87.2920618 83 1.05171159 R-squared = 0.0017 -------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = -0.3712 Total | 87.4382345 114 .767002057 Root MSE = 1.0255 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ res | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- reslag1 | .0515151 .1381815 0.37 0.710 -.2233224 .3263526 EUimportso~1 | -.0112319 .0615895 -0.18 0.856 -.1337309 .1112671 protr~IRlag1 | .0006969 .0500284 0.01 0.989 -.0988076 .1002013 protr~IRlag2 | -.0016426 .0519401 -0.03 0.975 -.1049493 .1016642 protr~IRlag3 | -.0015307 .0521501 -0.03 0.977 -.1052552 .1021939 fr | -.1669122 .9926416 -0.17 0.867 -2.141236 1.807412 belux | .1121992 .7067482 0.16 0.874 -1.293495 1.517893 ge | -.1743262 1.028195 -0.17 0.866 -2.219364 1.870711 it | -.1769239 1.103865 -0.16 0.873 -2.372467 2.018619 y1993 | .0825185 .8557998 0.10 0.923 -1.619633 1.78467 y1992 | .0870391 .9040383 0.10 0.924 -1.711057 1.885135 y1991 | .0981129 .9017157 0.11 0.914 -1.695363 1.891589 y1990 | .104993 .9278843 0.11 0.910 -1.740532 1.950517 y1989 | .0916524 .8938476 0.10 0.919 -1.686175 1.869479 y1988 | .0790986 .8519525 0.09 0.926 -1.615401 1.773598 y1987 | .0810785 .8178636 0.10 0.921 -1.545619 1.707776 y1986 | .0974004 .8624642 0.11 0.910 -1.618006 1.812807 y1985 | .0872169 .8300589 0.11 0.917 -1.563737 1.738171 y1984 | .0738299 .7794003 0.09 0.925 -1.476366 1.624026 y1983 | .0675747 .7745496 0.09 0.931 -1.472973 1.608123 y1982 | .0599605 .7307098 0.08 0.935 -1.393392 1.513313 y1981 | .0543792 .7262429 0.07 0.940 -1.390089 1.498847 y1980 | .0538332 .7130491 0.08 0.940 -1.364393 1.472059 y1979 | .0352179 .6789937 0.05 0.959 -1.315273 1.385709 y1978 | .035222 .6779794 0.05 0.959 -1.313252 1.383696 y1977 | .0326462 .6749026 0.05 0.962 -1.309708 1.375 y1976 | .022213 .6622894 0.03 0.973 -1.295054 1.33948 y1975 | .0456131 .6954427 0.07 0.948 -1.337594 1.428821 y1974 | .0287623 .6697352 0.04 0.966 -1.303314 1.360839 y1973 | -.0014134 .6525948 -0.00 0.998 -1.299398 1.296571 y1972 | .0022048 .6512526 0.00 0.997 -1.29311 1.29752 _cons | .2293013 1.368137 0.17 0.867 -2.491868 2.950471 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . ***do it again for Preliminary Rulings . . drop res reslag1 . . reg EUimportsovergdp EUimportsovergdplag1 protradePRlag1 protradePRlag2 protradePRlag3 fr belux ge it y1 > 993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 > y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972 Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 115 -------------+------------------------------ F( 30, 84) = 491.73 Model | 14773.9892 30 492.466306 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual | 84.1262702 84 1.00150322 R-squared = 0.9943 -------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.9923 Total | 14858.1155 114 130.334346 Root MSE = 1.0008 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ EUimportso~p | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- EUimportso~1 | .8138034 .0540408 15.06 0.000 .7063374 .9212695 protr~PRlag1 | .0023179 .0181491 0.13 0.899 -.0337736 .0384093 protr~PRlag2 | .0236104 .0174173 1.36 0.179 -.0110258 .0582466 protr~PRlag3 | -.0240852 .0179244 -1.34 0.183 -.0597299 .0115594 fr | -2.818413 .8723289 -3.23 0.002 -4.553135 -1.083692 belux | 2.088744 .6301354 3.31 0.001 .8356506 3.341837 ge | -3.084359 1.163661 -2.65 0.010 -5.398426 -.7702919 it | -3.260023 .9656535 -3.38 0.001 -5.180331 -1.339715 y1993 | -.8081713 .8139566 -0.99 0.324 -2.426813 .8104707 y1992 | -.2067434 .8290125 -0.25 0.804 -1.855326 1.441839 y1991 | .8437059 .829454 1.02 0.312 -.8057544 2.493166 y1990 | 1.095211 .8176048 1.34 0.184 -.5306859 2.721108 y1989 | 1.982026 .7758492 2.55 0.012 .4391652 3.524888 y1988 | 1.833018 .7646941 2.40 0.019 .3123405 3.353696 y1987 | .9160441 .7783538 1.18 0.243 -.6317979 2.463886 y1986 | -.1990739 .7934808 -0.25 0.803 -1.776997 1.37885 y1985 | 2.493957 .8001337 3.12 0.003 .9028034 4.085111 y1984 | 1.873865 .7985584 2.35 0.021 .2858437 3.461886 y1983 | 1.278297 .7621955 1.68 0.097 -.2374121 2.794007 y1982 | 1.600915 .7393857 2.17 0.033 .1305652 3.071264 y1981 | .8328667 .7315215 1.14 0.258 -.6218439 2.287577 y1980 | .9804653 .7277533 1.35 0.182 -.4667519 2.427683 y1979 | 2.002164 .7209692 2.78 0.007 .5684376 3.43589 y1978 | .3687963 .6991347 0.53 0.599 -1.02151 1.759102 y1977 | .7039105 .6762252 1.04 0.301 -.6408376 2.048658 y1976 | 1.293231 .6797718 1.90 0.061 -.0585701 2.645032 y1975 | -1.529938 .690485 -2.22 0.029 -2.903043 -.1568324 y1974 | 1.731882 .6575765 2.63 0.010 .4242189 3.039545 y1973 | 2.763503 .6425341 4.30 0.000 1.485753 4.041252 y1972 | -.4245595 .6451832 -0.66 0.512 -1.707577 .858458 _cons | 3.928599 1.201045 3.27 0.002 1.54019 6.317009 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . predict res, r (5 missing values generated) . gen reslag1=res[_n-1] (6 missing values generated) . replace reslag1=0 if reslag1==. | year<1971 (10 real changes made) . replace res=0 if res==. (5 real changes made) . . reg res reslag1 EUimportsovergdplag1 protradePRlag1 protradePRlag2 protradePRlag3 fr belux ge it y1993 y > 1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y197 > 5 y1974 y1973 y1972 Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 115 -------------+------------------------------ F( 31, 83) = 0.01 Model | .435737864 31 .01405606 Prob > F = 1.0000 Residual | 83.6905329 83 1.00831967 R-squared = 0.0052 -------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = -0.3664 Total | 84.1262707 114 .737949743 Root MSE = 1.0042 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ res | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- reslag1 | .09068 .1379425 0.66 0.513 -.1836821 .3650422 EUimportso~1 | -.0196223 .0618972 -0.32 0.752 -.1427334 .1034889 protr~PRlag1 | .0007984 .0182512 0.04 0.965 -.0355026 .0370993 protr~PRlag2 | .0004621 .0174906 0.03 0.979 -.0343261 .0352502 protr~PRlag3 | .0008415 .0180308 0.05 0.963 -.0350211 .036704 fr | -.2879499 .9787782 -0.29 0.769 -2.2347 1.658801 belux | .1930519 .6971482 0.28 0.783 -1.193548 1.579652 ge | -.342249 1.278428 -0.27 0.790 -2.884991 2.200493 it | -.32357 1.086788 -0.30 0.767 -2.485148 1.838008 y1993 | .0860228 .8271387 0.10 0.917 -1.559123 1.731168 y1992 | .1124746 .8492428 0.13 0.895 -1.576635 1.801584 y1991 | .1214796 .8525408 0.14 0.887 -1.57419 1.817149 y1990 | .1310324 .8442503 0.16 0.877 -1.548147 1.810212 y1989 | .1162097 .7983041 0.15 0.885 -1.471585 1.704005 y1988 | .105143 .783785 0.13 0.894 -1.453774 1.66406 y1987 | .1088689 .7983641 0.14 0.892 -1.479045 1.696783 y1986 | .1394994 .8239713 0.17 0.866 -1.499346 1.778345 y1985 | .1135173 .8212129 0.14 0.890 -1.519842 1.746877 y1984 | .0981939 .8150755 0.12 0.904 -1.522958 1.719346 y1983 | .0866737 .7760669 0.11 0.911 -1.456892 1.63024 y1982 | .0774068 .751184 0.10 0.918 -1.416668 1.571482 y1981 | .0776843 .7434587 0.10 0.917 -1.401025 1.556394 y1980 | .0717919 .7383471 0.10 0.923 -1.396751 1.540335 y1979 | .0451559 .7266725 0.06 0.951 -1.400166 1.490478 y1978 | .0460651 .7050011 0.07 0.948 -1.356154 1.448284 y1977 | .0445055 .6818918 0.07 0.948 -1.31175 1.400761 y1976 | .0270069 .6833174 0.04 0.969 -1.332084 1.386098 y1975 | .0691333 .700767 0.10 0.922 -1.324664 1.462931 y1974 | .0450885 .6633659 0.07 0.946 -1.27432 1.364497 y1973 | -.0078805 .6448284 -0.01 0.990 -1.290418 1.274657 y1972 | .0021727 .6473835 0.00 0.997 -1.285447 1.289793 _cons | .3949266 1.346567 0.29 0.770 -2.283341 3.073194 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . ****Specification test for Prais-Winsten model for preliminary rulings. . ***Is protradelag3 coef. equal to protradelag2*EUimportsovergdplag1? . . xtpcse EUimportsovergdp EUimportsovergdplag1 protradePRlag1 protradePRlag2 protradePRlag3 fr belux ge it > y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1 > 976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972, pairwise Linear regression, correlated panels corrected standard errors (PCSEs) Group variable: natlsourceofcase Number of obs = 115 Time variable: year Number of groups = 5 Panels: correlated (balanced) Obs per group: min = 23 Autocorrelation: no autocorrelation avg = 23 max = 23 Estimated covariances = 15 R-squared = 0.9943 Estimated autocorrelations = 0 Wald chi2(8) = 1467.41 Estimated coefficients = 31 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Panel-corrected EUimportso~p | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- EUimportso~1 | .8138034 .0846954 9.61 0.000 .6478036 .9798033 protr~PRlag1 | .0023179 .0137963 0.17 0.867 -.0247224 .0293581 protr~PRlag2 | .0236104 .0137154 1.72 0.085 -.0032714 .0504921 protr~PRlag3 | -.0240852 .0148241 -1.62 0.104 -.05314 .0049695 fr | -2.818413 1.339426 -2.10 0.035 -5.443639 -.1931874 belux | 2.088744 .8658411 2.41 0.016 .3917266 3.785761 ge | -3.084359 1.514085 -2.04 0.042 -6.05191 -.1168077 it | -3.260023 1.494826 -2.18 0.029 -6.189828 -.330217 y1993 | -.8081713 .5394364 -1.50 0.134 -1.865447 .2491046 y1992 | -.2067434 .6287179 -0.33 0.742 -1.439008 1.025521 y1991 | .8437059 .6584119 1.28 0.200 -.4467577 2.13417 y1990 | 1.095211 .6734806 1.63 0.104 -.2247867 2.415209 y1989 | 1.982026 .5959742 3.33 0.001 .8139384 3.150114 y1988 | 1.833018 .5483567 3.34 0.001 .7582591 2.907778 y1987 | .9160441 .5706531 1.61 0.108 -.2024154 2.034504 y1986 | -.1990739 .6798875 -0.29 0.770 -1.531629 1.133481 y1985 | 2.493957 .6085435 4.10 0.000 1.301234 3.68668 y1984 | 1.873865 .556983 3.36 0.001 .782198 2.965531 y1983 | 1.278297 .49443 2.59 0.010 .3092322 2.247362 y1982 | 1.600915 .4406074 3.63 0.000 .73734 2.464489 y1981 | .8328667 .431442 1.93 0.054 -.0127441 1.678478 y1980 | .9804653 .4127711 2.38 0.018 .1714489 1.789482 y1979 | 2.002164 .3305152 6.06 0.000 1.354366 2.649962 y1978 | .3687963 .3019276 1.22 0.222 -.2229708 .9605635 y1977 | .7039105 .2639469 2.67 0.008 .186584 1.221237 y1976 | 1.293231 .2266415 5.71 0.000 .8490215 1.73744 y1975 | -1.529938 .3554969 -4.30 0.000 -2.226699 -.8331765 y1974 | 1.731882 .2330215 7.43 0.000 1.275168 2.188596 y1973 | 2.763503 .0867662 31.85 0.000 2.593444 2.933561 y1972 | -.4245595 .1054238 -4.03 0.000 -.6311864 -.2179326 _cons | 3.928599 1.763552 2.23 0.026 .4721 7.385098 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . test protradePRlag2*.81 + protradePRlag3=0 ( 1) .81*protradePRlag2 + protradePRlag3 = 0 chi2( 1) = 0.08 Prob > chi2 = 0.7835 . . xtpcse EUimportsovergdp EUimportsovergdplag1 protradePRsubsetlag1 protradePRsubsetlag2 protradePRsubsetla > g3 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1 > 979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972, pairwise Linear regression, correlated panels corrected standard errors (PCSEs) Group variable: natlsourceofcase Number of obs = 115 Time variable: year Number of groups = 5 Panels: correlated (balanced) Obs per group: min = 23 Autocorrelation: no autocorrelation avg = 23 max = 23 Estimated covariances = 15 R-squared = 0.9944 Estimated autocorrelations = 0 Wald chi2(8) = 3243.22 Estimated coefficients = 31 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Panel-corrected EUimportso~p | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- EUimportso~1 | .817257 .0839524 9.73 0.000 .6527134 .9818006 protradePR.. | .0014126 .0146884 0.10 0.923 -.0273762 .0302014 protradePR.. | .0179786 .0148714 1.21 0.227 -.0111687 .047126 protradePR.. | -.0348306 .0153037 -2.28 0.023 -.0648253 -.0048359 fr | -2.800208 1.333577 -2.10 0.036 -5.413971 -.1864451 belux | 1.976304 .8795257 2.25 0.025 .2524652 3.700143 ge | -2.767988 1.512828 -1.83 0.067 -5.733077 .1971008 it | -3.214577 1.4956 -2.15 0.032 -6.1459 -.2832541 y1993 | -.6583219 .5075604 -1.30 0.195 -1.653122 .3364782 y1992 | -.0289343 .5994129 -0.05 0.962 -1.203762 1.145893 y1991 | 1.004091 .6343243 1.58 0.113 -.2391614 2.247344 y1990 | 1.233591 .6569273 1.88 0.060 -.0539629 2.521145 y1989 | 2.043502 .5811153 3.52 0.000 .9045367 3.182467 y1988 | 1.969106 .5319878 3.70 0.000 .9264286 3.011782 y1987 | 1.046593 .5586369 1.87 0.061 -.0483146 2.141502 y1986 | -.0863184 .6671804 -0.13 0.897 -1.393968 1.221331 y1985 | 2.573082 .5866026 4.39 0.000 1.423362 3.722802 y1984 | 2.09095 .5298315 3.95 0.000 1.052499 3.129401 y1983 | 1.414924 .4721861 3.00 0.003 .489456 2.340391 y1982 | 1.757421 .4273289 4.11 0.000 .919872 2.59497 y1981 | .9003678 .4234903 2.13 0.033 .0703421 1.730393 y1980 | 1.056936 .3909678 2.70 0.007 .2906526 1.823218 y1979 | 2.139559 .3024232 7.07 0.000 1.54682 2.732298 y1978 | .4612908 .2813469 1.64 0.101 -.090139 1.012721 y1977 | .7869133 .2511747 3.13 0.002 .29462 1.279207 y1976 | 1.439567 .2231077 6.45 0.000 1.002284 1.87685 y1975 | -1.49779 .356775 -4.20 0.000 -2.197056 -.7985236 y1974 | 1.809037 .2241372 8.07 0.000 1.369736 2.248338 y1973 | 2.809965 .1022098 27.49 0.000 2.609638 3.010293 y1972 | -.4452993 .1203689 -3.70 0.000 -.681218 -.2093806 _cons | 3.909514 1.747644 2.24 0.025 .4841957 7.334833 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . test protradePRsubsetlag2*.82 + protradePRsubsetlag3=0 ( 1) .82*protradePRsubsetlag2 + protradePRsubsetlag3 = 0 chi2( 1) = 1.13 Prob > chi2 = 0.2881 . . . . ****Kievet bias correction to assess any bias in the coefficient estimates on the lagged dependent variab > le and the lagged rulings . . xtlsdvc EUimportsovergdp protradePRlag1 protradePRlag2 protradePRlag3 y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 > y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972, initial > (ah) vcov(200) Bias correction initialized by Anderson and Hsiao estimator note: Bias correction up to order O(1/T) LSDVC dynamic regression (bootstrapped SE) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ EUimportso~p | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- EUimportso~p | L1. | .8617234 .0885373 9.73 0.000 .6881934 1.035253 | protr~PRlag1 | .001777 .0299029 0.06 0.953 -.0568316 .0603856 protr~PRlag2 | .0247679 .0288085 0.86 0.390 -.0316956 .0812315 protr~PRlag3 | -.0244344 .0304039 -0.80 0.422 -.084025 .0351562 y1993 | -1.103813 1.399899 -0.79 0.430 -3.847564 1.639937 y1992 | -.5677603 1.412907 -0.40 0.688 -3.337008 2.201487 y1991 | .4635598 1.447005 0.32 0.749 -2.372517 3.299637 y1990 | .7009109 1.368461 0.51 0.609 -1.981223 3.383045 y1989 | 1.633865 1.350554 1.21 0.226 -1.013173 4.280902 y1988 | 1.515119 1.311512 1.16 0.248 -1.055398 4.085636 y1987 | .5845565 1.355263 0.43 0.666 -2.07171 3.240823 y1986 | -.5997807 1.284458 -0.47 0.641 -3.117272 1.917711 y1985 | 2.149277 1.341708 1.60 0.109 -.4804216 4.778975 y1984 | 1.561308 1.323992 1.18 0.238 -1.033669 4.156285 y1983 | .9984374 1.449698 0.69 0.491 -1.842918 3.839793 y1982 | 1.351599 1.27813 1.06 0.290 -1.153489 3.856687 y1981 | .586131 1.239049 0.47 0.636 -1.84236 3.014622 y1980 | .7474832 1.193297 0.63 0.531 -1.591336 3.086302 y1979 | 1.83421 1.150313 1.59 0.111 -.4203618 4.088783 y1978 | .2054873 1.161075 0.18 0.860 -2.070178 2.481153 y1977 | .555409 1.108129 0.50 0.616 -1.616484 2.727302 y1976 | 1.187315 1.023824 1.16 0.246 -.8193434 3.193974 y1975 | -1.736893 1.140504 -1.52 0.128 -3.972239 .4984535 y1974 | 1.597414 1.015901 1.57 0.116 -.3937158 3.588543 y1973 | 2.766331 .9827227 2.81 0.005 .8402295 4.692432 y1972 | -.4376561 1.026487 -0.43 0.670 -2.449534 1.574222 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . xtlsdvc EUimportsovergdp protradePRsubsetlag1 protradePRsubsetlag2 protradePRsubsetlag3 y1993 y1992 y1991 > y1990 y1989 y1988 y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1 > 973 y1972, initial(ah) vcov(200) Bias correction initialized by Anderson and Hsiao estimator note: Bias correction up to order O(1/T) LSDVC dynamic regression (bootstrapped SE) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ EUimportso~p | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- EUimportso~p | L1. | .8640602 .0867291 9.96 0.000 .6940743 1.034046 | protradePR.. | .0011467 .0309877 0.04 0.970 -.0595882 .0618815 protradePR.. | .0193452 .0305768 0.63 0.527 -.0405841 .0792745 protradePR.. | -.0346022 .0319505 -1.08 0.279 -.097224 .0280197 y1993 | -.9579524 1.302516 -0.74 0.462 -3.510837 1.594932 y1992 | -.389475 1.312261 -0.30 0.767 -2.961459 2.182509 y1991 | .62154 1.386847 0.45 0.654 -2.09663 3.33971 y1990 | .8410928 1.289695 0.65 0.514 -1.686663 3.368848 y1989 | 1.696146 1.293398 1.31 0.190 -.8388678 4.23116 y1988 | 1.651924 1.27956 1.29 0.197 -.8559668 4.159816 y1987 | .7151273 1.296186 0.55 0.581 -1.825351 3.255606 y1986 | -.4840196 1.222704 -0.40 0.692 -2.880475 1.912436 y1985 | 2.224284 1.292994 1.72 0.085 -.3099387 4.758506 y1984 | 1.780792 1.2562 1.42 0.156 -.6813138 4.242898 y1983 | 1.130704 1.405827 0.80 0.421 -1.624666 3.886074 y1982 | 1.503935 1.233859 1.22 0.223 -.9143843 3.922253 y1981 | .6520943 1.226117 0.53 0.595 -1.751051 3.055239 y1980 | .8215217 1.156589 0.71 0.478 -1.445351 3.088394 y1979 | 1.970426 1.109269 1.78 0.076 -.2037013 4.144554 y1978 | .2968242 1.129791 0.26 0.793 -1.917526 2.511175 y1977 | .6362125 1.110968 0.57 0.567 -1.541244 2.813669 y1976 | 1.330035 1.034725 1.29 0.199 -.6979887 3.358058 y1975 | -1.705899 1.147781 -1.49 0.137 -3.955508 .5437094 y1974 | 1.675719 1.025764 1.63 0.102 -.3347418 3.68618 y1973 | 2.807664 1.003871 2.80 0.005 .8401123 4.775216 y1972 | -.4580936 1.057994 -0.43 0.665 -2.531723 1.615536 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . . ***for Germany counterfactual . . xtpcse EUimportsovergdp protradePRlag2 protradeIRlag2 fr belux ge it y1993 y1992 y1991 y1990 y1989 y1988 > y1987 y1986 y1985 y1984 y1983 y1982 y1981 y1980 y1979 y1978 y1977 y1976 y1975 y1974 y1973 y1972 y1971, p > airwise correlation(ar1) Prais-Winsten regression, correlated panels corrected standard errors (PCSEs) Group variable: natlsourceofcase Number of obs = 120 Time variable: year Number of groups = 5 Panels: correlated (balanced) Obs per group: min = 24 Autocorrelation: common AR(1) avg = 24 max = 24 Estimated covariances = 15 R-squared = 0.9326 Estimated autocorrelations = 1 Wald chi2(6) = 1462.47 Estimated coefficients = 30 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Panel-corrected EUimportso~p | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- protr~PRlag2 | .0271273 .0131888 2.06 0.040 .0012778 .0529769 protr~IRlag2 | -.0205439 .048481 -0.42 0.672 -.1155649 .0744772 fr | -15.09762 .8649795 -17.45 0.000 -16.79294 -13.40229 belux | 9.357685 .8686176 10.77 0.000 7.655226 11.06014 ge | -16.31988 .9135861 -17.86 0.000 -18.11047 -14.52928 it | -16.9321 .9684396 -17.48 0.000 -18.83021 -15.03399 y1993 | 3.822895 .4317969 8.85 0.000 2.976589 4.669202 y1992 | 5.539209 .3132179 17.68 0.000 4.925313 6.153105 y1991 | 6.970932 .241162 28.91 0.000 6.498264 7.443601 y1990 | 7.491342 .3533535 21.20 0.000 6.798781 8.183902 y1989 | 7.785753 .3371746 23.09 0.000 7.124902 8.446603 y1988 | 6.958635 .2315541 30.05 0.000 6.504797 7.412473 y1987 | 6.195509 .245225 25.26 0.000 5.714877 6.676141 y1986 | 6.405743 .2143166 29.89 0.000 5.98569 6.825796 y1985 | 8.011846 .1692322 47.34 0.000 7.680157 8.343535 y1984 | 6.713203 .3089489 21.73 0.000 6.107674 7.318732 y1983 | 5.856683 .1612159 36.33 0.000 5.540706 6.172661 y1982 | 5.537005 .1834084 30.19 0.000 5.177531 5.896479 y1981 | 4.715702 .182201 25.88 0.000 4.358595 5.07281 y1980 | 4.695982 .1099248 42.72 0.000 4.480534 4.911431 y1979 | 4.45864 .1767298 25.23 0.000 4.112256 4.805024 y1978 | 2.959548 .1424389 20.78 0.000 2.680373 3.238723 y1977 | 3.081478 .0769425 40.05 0.000 2.930673 3.232282 y1976 | 2.816288 .1084167 25.98 0.000 2.603795 3.02878 y1975 | 1.801566 .1218887 14.78 0.000 1.562668 2.040463 y1974 | 3.99209 .0638805 62.49 0.000 3.866887 4.117294 y1973 | 2.656514 .0254898 104.22 0.000 2.606555 2.706473 y1972 | -.2288847 .0701196 -3.26 0.001 -.3663166 -.0914528 y1971 | .1321575 .0451262 2.93 0.003 .0437118 .2206032 _cons | 20.70032 .495651 41.76 0.000 19.72886 21.67178 -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- rho | .7166385 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . predict p (option xb assumed; fitted values) . . list year p if ge==1 & year>1969 +------------------+ | year p | |------------------| 73. | 1970 4.8416029 | 74. | 1971 4.6753599 | 75. | 1972 5.1823917 | 76. | 1973 7.5523715 | 77. | 1974 9.0507116 | |------------------| 78. | 1975 7.3213515 | 79. | 1976 7.8749089 | 80. | 1977 8.0653004 | 81. | 1978 8.1266787 | 82. | 1979 9.7885346 | |------------------| 83. | 1980 9.8902402 | 84. | 1981 9.9165437 | 85. | 1982 10.541372 | 86. | 1983 10.969559 | 87. | 1984 12.585644 | |------------------| 88. | 1985 12.914287 | 89. | 1986 11.884441 | 90. | 1987 11.171955 | 91. | 1988 12.077301 | 92. | 1989 12.653689 | |------------------| 93. | 1990 12.698766 | 94. | 1991 12.089598 | 95. | 1992 10.970236 | 96. | 1993 9.233378 | +------------------+ . . . log close name: log: /Users/mjgabe1/Desktop/JOP Replication/JOPreplication.out log type: text closed on: 15 May 2012, 13:29:47 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------